Will Alibaba have the best AI model for math on March 31?

The market strongly favors that Alibaba will not have the best AI model for math by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.85% likelihood that Alibaba will not have the best AI model for math, suggesting strong skepticism about their capabilities in this area. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome, indicating some uncertainty. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears to have accurately assessed the situation.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight increase in YES probability at 3.15%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is 427 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.