Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market indicates low confidence in Alibaba's AI model ranking by mid-2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Alibaba having the second best AI model, with a 99.55% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability also reflects skepticism, suggesting limited confidence in Alibaba's competitive positioning in AI technology by June 2026.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Alibaba's AI ranking.
• 2 The probability of 'YES' remains low at 0.45%, indicating skepticism.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher 'YES' probability at 3.45%, but still low.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3, suggesting balanced views.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 2205 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.