Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Alibaba having the top AI model by June 2026.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of 1.75% for Alibaba having the top AI model by June 2026, with a consensus leaning heavily towards NO at 98.25%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a significant level of skepticism regarding Alibaba's position in the AI landscape at that time.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Alibaba's AI model ranking.
• 2 Market probability suggests a strong belief in competitors outperforming Alibaba.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is perceived as fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level at 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 2655 hours allows for potential developments in AI technology.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.