Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Market suggests low confidence in Amazon having the best AI model by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Amazon will not have the best AI model by the end of April 2026, with a probability of 99.2% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, showing only a 3.8% chance for 'YES', suggesting that current evaluations favor other competitors in the AI space.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market, indicating consensus.
• 3 The edge score of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in technology landscape.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution so