Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

High probability suggests confidence in Anthropic's AI model ranking by March 2026.

The market shows an 81.35% probability that Anthropic will have the #2 AI model by the end of March 2026, indicating strong confidence among participants. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 77.85%, suggesting a consensus on this outlook, though the edge of -3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced. With 410 hours until expiry, there is still time for developments to influence these probabilities.

• 1 Current market probability favors Anthropic's AI model ranking highly.
• 2 Pulse AI probability reflects similar confidence but slightly lower.
• 3 Market edge indicates fair pricing with no significant misalignment.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.