Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market leans towards Anthropic not having the best AI model by June 2026.

The current market probability indicates a 39.90% chance that Anthropic will have the best AI model by the end of June 2026, with a stronger sentiment against this outcome at 60.1%. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors Anthropic at 42.9%, suggesting some uncertainty but overall skepticism about their leading position in the AI landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome for Anthropic's model.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a competitive AI landscape by mid-2026.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time until expiry is significant at 2709 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.