Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?

The market favors a NO outcome for Anthropic having the best math AI model.

Currently, the prediction market indicates a 96.4% probability that Anthropic will not have the best AI model for math by March 31. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 93.4%, suggesting a consensus that other competitors are likely to outperform Anthropic in this area. The market appears fairly priced with a moderate confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome at 96.4%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 6.6%.
• 3 The edge score of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is 439 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.