Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

The market shows a close contest on Anthropic's AI model ranking by mid-2026.

With a market probability of 45% for Anthropic having the second best AI model, the competition is tight, as indicated by the 55% probability for a NO outcome. The Pulse AI probability further suggests a slight edge for the NO outcome, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Current market sentiment is evenly split on Anthropic's potential ranking.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a competitive landscape for AI models.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 2258 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.