Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

The market favors NO for Anthropic having the top AI model by June 2026.

Currently, the prediction market shows a 67% probability that Anthropic will not have the top AI model by the end of June 2026. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 64%, indicating a consensus that other competitors may lead in AI model development. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability indicates a strong belief Anthropic will not lead.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly more optimistic for Anthropic.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.