Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

The market indicates a low likelihood of Anthropic making a deal with the Pentagon.

Current market probabilities show a 20% chance of Anthropic striking a deal with the Pentagon, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 21.5%. The overall sentiment leans towards a 'NO' outcome, indicating skepticism about such a partnership materializing within the given timeframe.

• 1 Market probability for a deal is at 20%, reflecting low confidence.
• 2 Pulse AI slightly increases the likelihood to 21.5%, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, showing some belief in the current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 1205 hours, allowing for potential developments.

In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract woul