Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?

Market predicts Anthropic's IPO market cap will be below $600B.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of Anthropic achieving a market cap of $600B or greater on IPO day, with a consensus leaning heavily towards 'NO'. The confidence level is moderate, suggesting some uncertainty but overall agreement among participants that the target will not be met.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is only 1.25%.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability shows slightly higher optimism at 4.25%.
• 3 Market sentiment indicates a strong belief that the target will not be reached.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purpo