Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Market sees low probability for Anthropic's market cap to hit $100B-$200B by IPO day.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Anthropic's market cap reaching between $100B and $200B by the end of 2027, with a high NO probability of 99.2%. The Pulse AI also reflects this skepticism, suggesting a significant gap between market expectations and potential outcomes.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 High confidence in the NO prediction suggests stability in expectations.
• 3 The market is perceived as fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential market shifts.
• 5 Low liquidity may affect the responsiveness of the market to new information.

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading f