Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Market indicates low probability of Apple being the largest company by market cap on December 31.

The prediction market shows an 86% probability that Apple will not be the largest company by market cap at year-end. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting limited expectations for a significant shift in Apple's market position in the near term.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is 14%, indicating skepticism about Apple's position.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 15.5%, reflecting a marginally more optimistic outlook.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant misvaluation.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 indicates a strong consensus among market participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7123 hours, allowing for potential market fluctuations.

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.