Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Low probability for ByteDance to have the #1 AI model by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that ByteDance will not have the leading AI model by the end of April 2026, with a 97.65% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI model offers a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 5.35%, suggesting some uncertainty but overall alignment with market sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO'.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 817 hours.
• 5 Pulse AI's prediction is slightly more optimistic than the market.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on ano