Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Market predicts ByteDance will not have the best AI model by April 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against ByteDance having the best AI model, with a 98.65% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, indicating low confidence in ByteDance's potential to lead in AI technology by the specified date.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' regarding ByteDance's AI model.
• 2 The probability of 'YES' is notably low at 1.35%.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests slightly higher confidence in ByteDance at 4.35%.
• 4 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 There are 926 hours remaining until the market's expiry.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution so