Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?

Market strongly favors Databricks below $200B on IPO day.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.45%) that Databricks' market cap will not fall between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a significantly lower probability of 3.55% for a YES outcome, suggesting a consensus that the market is unlikely to reach this valuation range.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is notably low at 0.55%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge score of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2666 hours, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purpo