Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?

DeepSeek has a low probability of having a #1 AI model by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a high likelihood (91.55%) that DeepSeek will not achieve a #1 AI model by the specified date. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities suggest skepticism about DeepSeek's prospects in this competitive landscape.

• 1 Market probability favors NO at 91.55%, indicating low confidence in DeepSeek's success.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly more optimistic at 88.55%, but still leans towards NO.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced with little room for mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2536 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.