Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

The market strongly favors that DeepSeek will not have the #1 AI model by April 2026.

With a market probability of 96.95% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against DeepSeek achieving the top position in AI models by the specified date. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a general skepticism about DeepSeek's prospects in this competitive landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly negative towards DeepSeek's chances.
• 2 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is 829 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence the market.
• 5 The historical base rate for similar predictions may provide context for current probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on ano