Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

DeepSeek is unlikely to have the best AI model by April 2026.

The market shows a strong belief that DeepSeek will not have the best AI model by the end of April 2026, with a 97.75% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a consensus that DeepSeek faces significant competition in the AI landscape.

• 1 Market probability indicates low confidence in DeepSeek's success.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution so