Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

DeepSeek is unlikely to have the best AI model by March 2026.

The market shows a strong belief that DeepSeek will not have the best AI model, with a probability of 98.25% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a consensus against DeepSeek's potential success in this area.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 98.25%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 3.25%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 532 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence the market.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.