Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

DeepSeek is unlikely to have the second best AI model by June 2026.

The market shows a strong consensus against DeepSeek achieving the second best AI model status, with a probability of only 5.15% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a general skepticism about DeepSeek's competitive position in the AI landscape.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome at 94.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows slightly higher confidence in a YES outcome at 8.15%.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2263 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.