Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

The market strongly favors NO for DeepSeek's AI model ranking.

With a market probability of 98.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus against DeepSeek achieving the second-best AI model by March 2026. The Pulse AI probability also reflects this sentiment, albeit with slightly higher confidence in a negative outcome. The edge of 3 indicates that the market pricing appears reasonable based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for DeepSeek's ranking.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view but still leans NO.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 422 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.