Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

DeepSeek is unlikely to have the top AI model by June 2026 according to current market data.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that DeepSeek will not have the leading AI model by the end of June 2026, with a probability of 96.9% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, though slightly more optimistic at 6.1% for 'YES', suggesting a consensus that favors other contenders in the AI space.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 96.9%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 6.1%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2651 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.