Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?

Market expects Discord's cap to exceed $15B on IPO day.

The prediction market shows a strong belief that Discord's market cap will be above $15B at market close on IPO day, with a probability of 87.75% for 'NO'. The slight edge of 3 indicates that the market is fairly priced, and the confidence level of 60 suggests moderate certainty in this outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards Discord exceeding $15B.
• 2 Market probabilities suggest a strong belief in Discord's valuation.
• 3 Historical IPO performance may influence current expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting existing probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential market shifts before IPO.

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes