Will February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

February 2026 is unlikely to be the hottest on record, with low market confidence.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of February 2026 being the hottest month on record, with a consensus of 98.35% favoring 'NO'. The confidence level is moderate at 65/100, suggesting some uncertainty in the forecast despite the strong majority opinion.

• 1 Current market probability shows strong skepticism about record temperatures.
• 2 The confidence level reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 3 Historical data suggests February temperatures have varied widely.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with no significant edge detected.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, indicating urgency in market sentiment.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record.

Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.