Will February 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

The market strongly favors February 2026 not being the 2nd hottest month on record.

With a market probability of 99.5% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against February 2026 being the 2nd hottest month. The Pulse AI also aligns with this view, indicating a low likelihood of a record-breaking temperature for that month.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows February temperatures can vary widely.
• 3 Market probability suggests a low likelihood of record temperatures.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future predictions.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record.

Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.