Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

The market strongly favors February 2026 not being the 3rd hottest on record.

With a market probability of 99.2% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against February 2026 being the 3rd hottest month. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, indicating low confidence in a hotter outcome. The edge of 0.2 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a cooler February 2026.
• 2 Historical data shows a low frequency of extreme temperature records in February.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, with minimal fluctuations in probabilities.
• 4 The confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding a layer of unpredictability to the market.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record.

Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.