Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

February 2026 is highly likely to be among the 4 hottest months on record.

The market shows a strong belief, with a 96.7% probability, that February 2026 will be the 4th hottest or lower. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment of 95.2%, indicating a consensus on the expected temperature trends. The edge of -1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a hot February 2026.
• 2 Historical temperature data supports the likelihood of high temperatures.
• 3 Current climate models predict continued warming trends.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, with no major fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure is low, with only 7 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record.

Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.