Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market shows low confidence in Google having the #2 AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Google will not hold the #2 AI model position by the end of March 2026, with a 96.65% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES', suggesting some uncertainty but overall low confidence in Google's future standing in AI.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Google’s AI ranking.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a consensus against Google achieving #2 status.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 410 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.