Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Market favors 'NO' on Google having the best AI model by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 89% probability that Google will not have the best AI model by the end of April 2026. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge of 3, the market sentiment leans strongly against Google's prospects in this area. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar outlook, suggesting skepticism about Google's future AI capabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 89%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market at 86% for 'NO'.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 926 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution so