Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Market favors NO for Google having the best AI coding model by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Google will not have the best AI model for coding by the specified date, with a probability of 98.05% for NO. This sentiment is echoed by the Pulse AI, which also shows a high likelihood of NO at 95.05%, suggesting a consensus among participants that other competitors may outperform Google in this area.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 98.05%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a similar trend with a 95.05% NO probability.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 365 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.