Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market leans towards Google not having the second best AI model by June 2026.

The current market probability indicates a strong belief that Google will not secure the second best AI model, with a 72.5% NO probability. The Pulse AI's slightly higher YES probability suggests some uncertainty, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100. With a time to expiry of 2258 hours, market dynamics could shift as new developments arise.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome for Google.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong consensus against Google's position.
• 3 Pulse AI's prediction shows some optimism but remains below market consensus.
• 4 Moderate confidence level suggests potential volatility as the deadline approaches.
• 5 Time remaining allows for significant developments that could influence the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.