Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Google having the second-best AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant probability of 95.75% for NO, indicating strong skepticism about Google's AI model ranking. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, suggesting a consensus against Google's position. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge of 3, the market appears to reflect a balanced view of current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Google's AI ranking.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong belief in competitors' superiority.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited, with only 421 hours remaining for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.