Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market favors NO for Google having the top AI model by June 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards NO at 77%, indicating skepticism about Google's ability to lead in AI by mid-2026. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit slightly more optimistic for YES at 26%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable but cautious about Google's prospects.

• 1 Current market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 77%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a slightly higher chance for YES at 26%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2648 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.