Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market favors NO for Google having the top AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 85.5% probability that Google will not have the top AI model by the end of March 2026. This sentiment is echoed by the Pulse AI probability, which suggests a slightly higher chance for a NO outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a cautious outlook on Google's AI leadership.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors NO at 85.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 470 hours.
• 5 Current market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.