Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates low probability for GPT-6 release by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the release of GPT-6 by March 31, 2026, with a 97.45% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a general expectation that the release will not occur within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of release is significantly lower than the AI's own estimate.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 1.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 70/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Lack of clear timeline to expiry may affect market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.