Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Low probability for Meituan to have a #1 AI model by June 30.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Meituan achieving a #1 AI model by the specified date, with a 97.35% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI probability also reflects skepticism, suggesting limited confidence in Meituan's capabilities in this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 97.35%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 7.15%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2535 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.