Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Low probability for Microsoft to be the largest company by market cap by year-end.

The market shows a 2.35% probability for Microsoft to be the largest company by market cap on December 31, indicating a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 3.85%, but both figures suggest that market participants largely expect other companies to maintain or achieve a higher market cap. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 97.65%.
• 2 Microsoft's market cap faces strong competition from other tech giants.
• 3 Historical performance suggests large fluctuations in market cap rankings.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current probabilities.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.