Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Low probability for Mistral to have a #1 AI model by June 30.

The market indicates a 2.3% chance of Mistral achieving a #1 AI model by June 30, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI probability further supports this outlook, suggesting limited confidence in Mistral's prospects in the near term.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is only 2.3%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 6.8%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2535 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.