Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Mistral is unlikely to have the second-best AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Mistral achieving the second-best AI model status, with a 99.85% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating low confidence in Mistral's competitive positioning in the AI landscape by the specified date.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome for Mistral.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest minimal belief in Mistral's potential success.
• 3 The edge score indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market evaluations.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.