Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Moonshot having the best AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of 99.85% for NO, suggesting skepticism about Moonshot's prospects. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, showing a slightly higher probability for YES at 1.65%, indicating a low level of confidence in Moonshot's success. With a time to expiry of 530 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 1.65%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 530 hours remain until the market's expiry, allowing time for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.