Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Market strongly favors NO for Moonshot having the best AI coding model by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of 0.15% for Moonshot to have the best AI model for coding by the specified date, with a strong consensus on the NO side. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors NO at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 1.65%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 365 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.