Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math on March 31?

The market strongly favors that Moonshot will not have the best AI model for math.

With a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO', there is a significant consensus against Moonshot having the best AI model for math by March 31. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a low likelihood of a positive outcome for Moonshot. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Moonshot's model.
• 2 Market probability indicates strong skepticism about Moonshot's capabilities.
• 3 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry of 445 hours allows for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.