Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Moonshot having the second-best AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of 99.75% for NO, suggesting strong skepticism about Moonshot's potential. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, with a 96.75% probability for NO, indicating a consensus that Moonshot will not achieve this ranking. The market appears fairly priced, with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Moonshot's ranking.
• 2 The probability gap suggests low confidence in Moonshot's competitiveness.
• 3 Market pricing indicates a balanced view with a slight edge for NO.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 421 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 External factors could rapidly influence Moonshot's standing in the market.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.