Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market indicates low confidence in Moonshot having the top AI model by June 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Moonshot having the top AI model, with a probability of only 1.45% for a YES outcome. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which also suggests a low likelihood of success for Moonshot. The market appears fairly priced, indicating balanced sentiment among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the Pulse AI estimate.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 2681 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.