Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Market shows nearly equal chances for Morgan Stanley as lead underwriter for SpaceX IPO.

The prediction market indicates a close contest between the likelihood of Morgan Stanley serving as the lead underwriter for SpaceX's IPO, with probabilities hovering around 48.5% for YES and 51.5% for NO. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES, reflecting uncertainty in the market's expectations.

• 1 Market probability is very close, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse AI slightly favors Morgan Stanley as lead underwriter.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 50 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at over 658 days.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.