Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Market suggests low confidence in OpenAI having a top AI model by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a 26% probability that OpenAI will have a #1 AI model by the end of June, with a stronger consensus against it at 74%. The Pulse AI model reflects a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 29%, suggesting some uncertainty but still leaning towards NO. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment is predominantly negative towards OpenAI's chances.
• 2 The probability gap indicates skepticism about OpenAI's competitive edge.
• 3 Historical performance of AI models influences current expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is moderate, reflecting cautious trading behavior.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with less than 113 days until the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.