Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Market strongly favors OpenAI not having the top AI model by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of 95.95% that OpenAI will not have the #1 AI model by the end of April 2026. This sentiment is supported by a Pulse AI probability of 92.95%, suggesting a consensus against OpenAI's dominance in the AI model landscape. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability shows strong skepticism towards OpenAI's future position.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly more optimistic view, but still favors the NO outcome.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests that the market is well-aligned with current expectations.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 826 hours allows for potential shifts in technology or competition.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on ano