Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

The market strongly favors OpenAI not being the #2 AI model by March 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of OpenAI securing the #2 AI model position, with a 98.2% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI model reflects a slightly higher probability for YES at 4.8%, suggesting some uncertainty or differing opinions among participants.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors NO at 98.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view at 4.8% for YES.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 410 hours, adding urgency.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.