Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Market strongly favors OpenAI having the best coding model by March 31.

The prediction market indicates an 88.5% probability that OpenAI will have the best AI model for coding by March 31, which aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 85%. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -3.5, suggesting balanced sentiment among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive towards OpenAI.
• 2 The probability reflects strong confidence in OpenAI's capabilities.
• 3 The market's edge indicates it is fairly priced with little room for speculation.
• 4 The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty among traders.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.